Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:30:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5D 0x5d63…9075 crypto 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (742 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,779 (-206%) realized −$7,558 · open −$221
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate8%29W / 337L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day741.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$348
finance 23% +$214
other 22% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (742 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-66.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -62.8% -66.3% 8% 7% +19.0%
≤30d 366 -62.8% -66.3% 8% 7% +19.0%
≤90d 366 -62.8% -66.3% 8% 7% +19.0%
all 366 -62.8% -66.3% 8% 7% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover741.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.3% 7% +19.0%
10% ← realistic here -69.5% 6% +7.6%
15% -72.5% 6% -2.8%
20% -75.2% 5% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -82% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$1 · ×30.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,711
Realized−$7,558
Unrealized−$221
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses29 / 337
Open positions152
Markets (closed)366 / 172
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day741.8
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 152 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Up 96¢ 97¢ $96 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 52¢ 100¢ $49 $94 +$45 (+93%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 57¢ 84¢ $57 $84 +$26 (+46%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 60¢ $66 $60 −$6 (-8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+102%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Yes 24¢ 88¢ $16 $58 +$42 (+269%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? No 82¢ 72¢ $62 $54 −$8 (-13%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Yes 36¢ 88¢ $21 $53 +$31 (+147%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? No 81¢ 69¢ $61 $52 −$9 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? No 78¢ 66¢ $55 $47 −$8 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Yes 17¢ 66¢ $12 $46 +$34 (+282%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Yes 23¢ 60¢ $15 $39 +$25 (+167%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 21? No 79¢ 77¢ $40 $38 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 20? No 81¢ 76¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 19? No 82¢ 74¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? No 81¢ 90¢ $32 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Yes 25¢ 60¢ $15 $36 +$21 (+138%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 20? No 81¢ 72¢ $40 $36 −$5 (-12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? No 80¢ 88¢ $32 $35 +$3 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 19? No 81¢ 69¢ $40 $35 −$6 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 18? No 80¢ 66¢ $40 $33 −$7 (-18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 21? No 79¢ 88¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 21? No 81¢ 74¢ $28 $26 −$3 (-9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? No 79¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 329 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1350%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +375%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 9? Jun 15 $13 −$15 -115%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +941%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 7? Jun 15 $0 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 22? Jun 15 $0 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 29, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -93%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 29, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 2, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 2, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 89¢ $4 1m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $2 3m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 14m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 17m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 66¢ $3 26m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 72¢ $4 28m
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 29m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 68¢ $3 30m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $4 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 86¢ $4 35m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 81¢ $4 39m
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $5 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 47m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $4 48m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $4 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 88¢ $4 49m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 89¢ $4 54m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 55m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 57m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 59m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 92¢ $5 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,710.56 · official $1,699.96 (match) · 3500 history records