Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5f…1897 crypto 326 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2732 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,006 (+4%) realized +$1,006 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%183W / 146L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day2732.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$802
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2732 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -2.2% -11.6% 56% 42% -7.1%
≤30d 329 -2.2% -11.6% 56% 42% -7.1%
≤90d 329 -2.2% -11.6% 56% 42% -7.1%
all 329 -2.2% -11.6% 56% 42% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2732.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 42% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 28% -16.0%
15% -27.7% 17% -24.1%
20% -34.8% 9% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$22 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$1,006
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses183 / 146
Open positions1
Markets (closed)329 / 326
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day2732.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 47¢ 96¢ $7 $13 +$7 (+103%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $58 +$18 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$100 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $168 +$84 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $98 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $112 +$22 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $63 −$35 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $93 +$20 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $254 +$83 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $96 +$54 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $229 +$12 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $89 −$47 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $302 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $56 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $100 −$88 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$10 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $104 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $168 +$61 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $368 −$13 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $272 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $319 −$229 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $70 −$27 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$19 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $54 +$12 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $190 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $122 +$45 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $34 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $8 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $16 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.39 · official $18.18 · 3500 history records