Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5f…55a8 other 88 markets active 18h ago coverage 88d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$366 (-0%) realized −$594 · open +$228
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate67%57W / 28L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,844per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$6,324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$14,311
crypto 36% −$6,682
finance 3% +$38
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +190.3% +162.6% 80% 10% -9.9%
≤30d 40 +40.4% +27.0% 78% 2% -11.4%
≤90d 85 -1.7% -11.0% 67% 1% -17.8%
all 85 -1.7% -11.0% 67% 1% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 1% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -25.7%
15% -27.3% 1% -32.9%
20% -34.4% 1% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$4,140) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -37% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$807 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$6,324
Realized−$594
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses57 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions49
Markets (closed)85 / 88
History coverage88d
Avg bet$2,844
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 49 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5,300 $5,310 +$10 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $17 $166 +$149 (+881%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $17 $165 +$148 (+875%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $17 $109 +$92 (+545%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $17 $99 +$82 (+485%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $17 $82 +$65 (+383%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $17 $68 +$51 (+299%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $17 $61 +$45 (+263%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $17 $52 +$35 (+209%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $24 +$7 (+41%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $21 +$4 (+23%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+47%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-49%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-49%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $7 −$10 (-61%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-67%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-67%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $17 $5 −$12 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 15 $216 −$216 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5,290 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5,002 +$27 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,000 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5,001 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5,100 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,501 +$26 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $2,800 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,502 +$23 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2,700 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $5,346 +$25 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $4,925 +$75 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5,012 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,347 +$39 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $2,890 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,263 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $4,962 +$188 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,312 +$361 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,501 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5,581 −$999 -18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $5,645 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5,651 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5,636 +$17 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $5,501 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $4,995 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $570 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $4,955 +$45 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 26 $7,700 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? May 25 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $3,300 +$3 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23? May 24 $200 +$15 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 23? May 23 $3,500 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $575 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $570 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 20 $550 −$4 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $577 −$577 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $10,511 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $7,518 −$7,518 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,397 −$3,397 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,501 +$15 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,501 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 13 $3,300 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $1,402 −$896 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 11? May 11 $3,000 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $3,001 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 08 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $3,004 +$76 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,301 17h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5,295 17h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,290 41h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $96 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $48 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $150 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,324.06 · official $6,323.82 (match) · 846 history records