Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:21:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5e…5d89 crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$49
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -35.2% -41.4% 40% 30% -55.1%
≤30d 10 -35.2% -41.4% 40% 30% -55.1%
≤90d 10 -35.2% -41.4% 40% 30% -55.1%
all 10 -35.2% -41.4% 40% 30% -55.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.4% 30% -55.1%
10% -47.0% 30% -59.4%
15% -52.1% 30% -63.3%
20% -56.8% 20% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records