Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d5e…c1e4 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$56 (+10%) realized +$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
finance 38% +$27
world 14% +$27
crypto 9% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 33% +0.2%
≤30d 3 +10.7% +0.2% 67% 33% +0.2%
≤90d 6 +13.2% +2.4% 83% 33% +1.2%
all 6 +13.2% +2.4% 83% 33% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 33% +1.2%
10% -7.4% 33% -8.5%
15% -16.3% 17% -17.3%
20% -24.5% 0% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×6.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×32.06 per $1 lost it wins $32.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage96d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 79¢ 79¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $104 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 18 $77 +$27 +35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $55 +$22 +40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 29 $53 +$2 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 29 $100 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $53 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $53 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $49 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $55 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $104 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $104 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $77 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 98¢ $77 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 69¢ $55 56d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $55 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 96¢ $53 71d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? SELL No 99¢ $103 88d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? BUY No 96¢ $100 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.76 · official $101.76 (match) · 21 history records