Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d5a…a24f world 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%10W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$4
other 42% −$1
sports 11% $0
weather 0% −$12
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 45% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -0.3% -9.8% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 43 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -2.3% -11.6% 22% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses10 / 36
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage490d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 35¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $47 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $47 −$1 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $80 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $47 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $78 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $115 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $19 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $168 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 $0 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $45 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $42 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $50 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $44 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 24 $38 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $13 $0 -2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $313 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $64 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $266 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $6 $0 +8%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $265 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $266 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on February 25? Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Miami (FL) vs. Florida State Feb 18 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $47 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $47 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $46 7h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $46 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $46 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 94¢ $47 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $20 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $8 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $37 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $43 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $18 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $18 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $18 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $23 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.09 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records