Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d59…bdf3 sports 566 markets active 2h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,529 (-4%) realized −$5,497 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%276W / 280L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$968est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$741now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$17
14 days−$17,490
30 days−$9,844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$143
other 40% −$5,779
crypto 1% −$567
world 0% −$35
tech 0% +$84
finance 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 46% -7.7%
≤30d 209 -35.0% -41.1% 33% 33% -31.9%
≤90d 493 -2.5% -11.8% 50% 49% -13.6%
all 556 -1.5% -10.8% 50% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 48% -13.8%
10% -19.4% 47% -22.1%
15% -27.2% 44% -29.6%
20% -34.3% 39% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$170 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$741
Realized−$5,497
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses276 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$968
Open positions10
Markets (closed)556 / 566
History coverage249d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 556 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-2%)
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $162 $194 +$32 (+20%)
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $110 $106 −$3 (-3%)
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 72¢ 73¢ $72 $73 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $33 $40 +$7 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 46¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $35 $28 −$7 (-20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 8¢ $72 $27 −$45 (-63%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $18 $24 +$6 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $22 $15 −$8 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $50 +$22 +43%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $171 +$71 +41%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $51 +$39 +76%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $131 +$20 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $104 +$95 +92%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 −$88 -88%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$26 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $27 +$119 +437%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $164 +$37 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $155 +$47 +30%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.25T by June 30? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +39%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( Jun 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$17 -54%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $16 +$8 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $16 +$30 +188%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $1,082 −$1,082 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$34 +66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $57 −$6 -10%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Eu Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 07 $48 −$48 -100%
Game Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5) Jun 07 $36 −$36 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Tundra Esports (+1.5) Jun 07 $38 −$38 -100%
Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 07 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 07 $57 −$57 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $52 −$52 -100%
Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $39 −$39 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 07 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 07 $65 −$50 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 07 $113 +$122 +108%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $65 −$65 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL FURIA 100¢ $89 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 56¢ $51 4h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $72 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $242 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $50 21h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 48¢ $51 22h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $89 22h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 56¢ $51 23h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 70¢ $171 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $45 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $10 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 67¢ $20 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 66¢ $107 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $101 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 2d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 3d
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 5d
Arcium FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 5d
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 80¢ $110 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $12 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $29 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $55 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $741.08 · official $737.29 (match) · 2322 history records