Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d54…1f07 crypto 1040 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$49 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate31%317W / 722L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -2.0% -11.3% 31% 18% -8.9%
≤30d 938 -0.4% -9.9% 24% 2% -10.4%
≤90d 1039 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 4% -9.9%
all 1039 +0.2% -9.4% 31% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -9.9%
10% -18.0% 2% -18.5%
15% -25.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$12 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses317 / 722
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1039 / 1040
History coverage72d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1039 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$4 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.01 (match) · 2589 history records