Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d52…4198 crypto 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (131 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+7%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day131.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$36
other 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (131 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 41% -12.2%
≤30d 94 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 41% -12.2%
≤90d 94 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 41% -12.2%
all 94 -5.9% -14.9% 41% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover131.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 41% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 38% -20.6%
15% -30.5% 36% -28.3%
20% -37.3% 32% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 55
Open positions1
Markets (closed)94 / 95
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day131.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$17 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$21 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$17 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $21 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$19 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$13 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$17 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$24 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 28 $21 +$46 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$39 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$8 -73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $16 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $16 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $15 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $33 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $16 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $13 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $63 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $16 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.83 · official $19.83 (match) · 215 history records