Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5d4e…d571 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$210 (-43%) realized −$209 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%6W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$8
14 days−$2
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$9
sports 28% −$94
world 18% −$61
tech 4% $0
finance 4% −$2
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -30.2% -36.9% 20% 20% +3.1%
≤30d 29 +21.5% +10.0% 21% 21% -2.2%
≤90d 29 +21.5% +10.0% 21% 21% -2.2%
all 48 -7.7% -16.5% 12% 12% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 12% -40.7%
10% -24.5% 12% -46.4%
15% -31.8% 10% -51.5%
20% -38.5% 10% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$7 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$209
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses6 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage176d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $19 +$48 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$9 +122%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$41 +336%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $23 +$14 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$35 +1705%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $14 −$14 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 09 $10 −$4 -37%
Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? Feb 09 $9 −$1 -13%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 31 $7 −$7 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Victoria Mboko Jan 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 25 $20 −$1 -6%
Will annual inflation increase by between 27% and 29.9% in December? Jan 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by between 24% and 26.9% in December? Jan 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by less than 24% in December? Jan 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Jan 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Jan 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jan 08 $20 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
WD-40 Company (WDFC) Up or Down After Earnings? Jan 04 $20 −$2 -12%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 04 $1 $0 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $7 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 13d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 13d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 14d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 14d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 14d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 14d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 14d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 14d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.13 · official $3.13 (match) · 112 history records