Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d4d…ddd6 crypto 337 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1409 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$3,950 (+11%) realized +$3,950 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -64% what you keep after slip
Net edge-64%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%157W / 507L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1409.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$999
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1409 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-58.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 381 -88.3% -89.4% 8% 3% -57.5%
≤30d 664 -53.5% -58.0% 24% 8% -18.0%
≤90d 664 -53.5% -58.0% 24% 8% -18.0%
all 664 -53.5% -58.0% 24% 8% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1409.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.0% 8% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -62.0% 3% -25.8%
15% -65.7% 1% -33.0%
20% -69.0% 1% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -99% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,950
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses157 / 507
Open positions0
Markets (closed)664 / 337
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1409.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 664 Trades
no open positions (356 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records