Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d4d…4b29 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 429d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$163 (+2%) realized +$159 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% +$838
sports 35% −$334
other 13% −$263
culture 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-46.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -27.8% -34.7% 0% 0% -35.2%
all 14 -40.4% -46.1% 7% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.1% 7% -7.9%
10% -51.3% 0% -16.8%
15% -56.0% 0% -24.8%
20% -60.3% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -69% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$838 vs −$54 · ×15.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

429d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$159
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage429d
Avg bet$535
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 60¢ $159 $163 +$4 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $372 −$92 -25%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $539 −$167 -31%
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu Mar 19 $73 −$2 -2%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $300 −$19 -6%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $300 −$5 -2%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $141 −$24 -17%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $297 −$1 -0%
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Mar 18 $1,350 −$49 -4%
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? Mar 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025? Nov 13 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Nov 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 30 $4,141 +$838 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $161 1h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 31¢ $280 36d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 39¢ $372 38d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 42¢ $373 38d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 59¢ $539 38d
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu SELL Gabriel Diallo 45¢ $71 98d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 19¢ $90 99d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 19¢ $100 99d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 10¢ $118 99d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 15¢ $162 99d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main SELL Movsar Evloev 66¢ $1,300 99d
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main BUY Movsar Evloev 69¢ $1,350 99d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $141 99d
Miami Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu BUY Gabriel Diallo 46¢ $73 99d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 13¢ $140 99d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 99d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 99d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 12¢ $135 99d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 19¢ $101 99d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 20¢ $100 99d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $101 100d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 100d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 19¢ $91 100d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL Yes 18¢ $95 100d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 14¢ $157 101d
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 21¢ $100 101d
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 101d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 35¢ $100 102d
Will Anthony Joshua win by decision or technical decision? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 188d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.75 · official $162.75 (match) · 46 history records