Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d4b…3c24 other 40 markets active 3d ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$241 (+15%) realized +$169 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate83%30W / 6L
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$442now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$134
14 days+$156
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$137
sports 11% +$89
crypto 8% +$7
finance 3% +$6
tech 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +25.9% +13.9% 83% 75% +13.4%
≤30d 16 +19.1% +7.7% 81% 69% +12.1%
≤90d 16 +19.1% +7.7% 81% 69% +12.1%
all 36 +8.0% -2.3% 83% 50% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 50% +2.5%
10% -11.7% 33% -7.3%
15% -20.2% 31% -16.3%
20% -28.0% 25% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$32 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$442
Realized+$169
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses30 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)36 / 40
History coverage228d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $110 $175 +$65 (+59%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$18 +60%
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 22 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$28 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$4 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$18 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? Dec 22 $40 +$4 +11%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 19? Nov 21 $5 +$1 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 19? Nov 21 $15 +$5 +33%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 21 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2025-11-14? Nov 16 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 13 $43 +$9 +20%
Bulls vs. Pistons Nov 13 $80 +$60 +75%
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) Nov 12 $71 +$52 +72%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? Nov 11 $10 $0 +0%
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? Nov 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 11 $33 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 5? Nov 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 07 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on November 5? Nov 07 $25 $0 +1%
FTSE 100 (UKX) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on November 5? Nov 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $30 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 98¢ $200 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $113 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $205 8d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 90¢ $40 206d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on November 19? BUY Up 86¢ $5 217d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 19? BUY Up 75¢ $15 217d
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 217d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 96¢ $28 217d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 92¢ $20 220d
Will Argentina win on 2025-11-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 223d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November BUY No 83¢ $43 224d
Bulls vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 57¢ $80 224d
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 1) BUY Pakistan 58¢ $71 225d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? SELL No 100¢ $11 225d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.16 · official $442.16 (match) · 79 history records