Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5D 0x5d4b…1914 sports 131 markets active 2h ago coverage 643d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,168 (+9%) realized +$1,162 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%52W / 60L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$945
14 days+$1,569
30 days+$1,569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$1,716
other 25% +$696
politics 11% −$43
world 2% +$1
crypto 2% −$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +24.1% +12.3% 47% 47% +44.0%
≤30d 27 +29.5% +17.2% 52% 52% +40.2%
≤90d 28 +42.3% +28.8% 54% 54% +51.8%
all 112 +12.0% +1.4% 46% 45% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 45% +7.7%
10% -8.3% 43% -2.6%
15% -17.2% 42% -12.0%
20% -25.3% 39% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +68% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$55 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

643d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$1,162
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses52 / 60
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 131
History coverage643d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $212 $218 +$6 (+3%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $85 $85 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $211 +$192 +91%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $119 −$102 -85%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $76 +$79 +104%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $178 +$236 +133%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 −$5 -8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$46 -90%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $174 +$228 +131%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $87 +$227 +262%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $90 −$15 -17%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 −$76 -75%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 −$35 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $102 +$119 +117%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $152 +$146 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$39 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $63 −$7 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $52 +$48 +94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $44 +$59 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$153 +150%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$186 +124%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$82 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $205 −$202 -98%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 14 $161 −$62 -39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $408 +$429 +105%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $115 +$446 +388%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Mar 14 $207 +$11 +5%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 13 $438 −$132 -30%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Feb 09 $100 −$18 -18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $56 −$56 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 26 $200 −$47 -24%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 42.5 Jan 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 20 $260 +$267 +103%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 19 $265 −$265 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $100 +$51 +52%
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5 Jan 19 $100 +$68 +68%
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31? Jan 18 $103 −$38 -37%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 18 $80 −$10 -12%
Oregon vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 10 $114 +$86 +75%
Oregon vs. Indiana Jan 09 $50 −$50 -100%
Alabama vs. Indiana Jan 01 $53 −$53 -100%
Miami vs. Ohio State Jan 01 $50 +$158 +317%
Florida State vs. Florida Gators Nov 30 $104 +$100 +96%
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee Nov 02 $45 +$55 +122%
Georgia vs. Florida Gators Nov 01 $73 −$73 -100%
Duke vs. Clemson Nov 01 $32 −$13 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $54 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 28¢ $58 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 21¢ $67 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 47¢ $121 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $161 2h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes $18 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $119 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $56 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $56 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $131 16h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: O BUY 25¢ $28 16h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 48¢ $76 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 27h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $5 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 31h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 32h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Wi BUY 36¢ $73 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 29¢ $59 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY 36¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL 26¢ $75 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $57 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY 54¢ $56 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $26 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.32 · official $479.32 · 305 history records