Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:30:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d4b…e72f other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$102 (+2%) realized +$110 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate64%41W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$328
politics 30% +$284
sports 7% +$34
world 7% +$112
tech 7% +$41
crypto 4% +$1
economics 2% −$41
culture 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +8.0% -2.3% 100% 0% -2.3%
≤30d 6 +22.5% +10.8% 83% 33% -4.2%
≤90d 19 +31.7% +19.2% 84% 58% +12.1%
all 64 +6.4% -3.8% 64% 44% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 44% -7.2%
10% -13.0% 25% -16.1%
15% -21.4% 22% -24.2%
20% -29.1% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses41 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)64 / 75
History coverage235d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 65¢ 92¢ $130 $183 +$53 (+41%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $89 $93 +$4 (+4%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 52¢ $82 $79 −$3 (-4%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 50¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 68¢ 41¢ $91 $54 −$37 (-40%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 36¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 51¢ $39 $51 +$12 (+31%)
SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $41 $37 −$4 (-10%)
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 26¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-52%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 27¢ 16¢ $27 $16 −$11 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Jun 15 $150 +$12 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $139 +$5 +3%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $92 +$1 +1%
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Jun 08 $49 −$14 -30%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $35 +$18 +52%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21? May 22 $1 +$1 +104%
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 17 $157 +$28 +18%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 16 $252 +$48 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 01 $215 +$85 +40%
Will Jorge Nieto finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Apr 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Art Ross Trophy? Apr 12 $1 +$1 +111%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Apr 10 $147 +$68 +47%
Will 150 or more tornadoes occur in the United States in March 2026? Apr 10 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 02 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 30 $62 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $47 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $640b on March 31? Mar 25 $6 +$1 +20%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Mar 25 $40 −$13 -32%
Will the Detroit Pistons finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Ea Mar 23 $108 +$29 +27%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 20 $13 +$23 +177%
OpenAI IPO in 2025? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will deokdam (Seo Dae-gil) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $85 +$15 +18%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Mar 13 $32 −$11 -34%
Will SpaceX have 11 or more launches in February? Feb 15 $140 +$49 +35%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 mi Feb 13 $45 +$5 +11%
Will Trump talk to Mark Carney in February? Feb 12 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card by March 31? Feb 09 $71 −$4 -5%
Will Lionel Messi attend Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $12 −$6 -48%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Feb 05 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in February? Feb 05 $73 +$2 +3%
Kristi Noem out by March 31? Feb 02 $14 −$2 -16%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31? Jan 28 $18 +$18 +100%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jan 27 $17 −$1 -6%
Will Christian Menefee win TX-18 Special Election? Jan 25 $9 +$12 +133%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jan 25 $84 +$16 +20%
Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 be greater than 3.5%? Jan 21 $82 −$41 -51%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a woman? Jan 21 $190 −$190 -100%
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa qualify for the 2026 World Chess Champi Jan 21 $319 −$96 -30%
Han Duck-soo in jail by January 31? Jan 21 $54 −$9 -17%
Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing? Jan 07 $35 +$5 +14%
Japanese Snap Election Called by December 31, 2025? Jan 07 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Hikaru Nakamura qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Can Dec 10 $146 −$82 -56%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $29 +$5 +17%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Dec 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 06 $43 +$2 +4%
Will TIME's Person of the Year for 2025 be a human? Dec 06 $38 +$3 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $25 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 54¢ $27 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $37 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $41 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $51 1h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $55 1h
Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 5d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 82¢ $153 6d
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 7d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 83¢ $84 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 45¢ $93 11d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 62¢ $44 11d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 89¢ $89 11d
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $13 13d
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $21 13d
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $54 13d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 13d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $92 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 79¢ $55 15d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 19d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 19d
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 19d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL No 82¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.72 · official $718.72 (match) · 325 history records