Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:40:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

5D 0x5d48…e858 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$31 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,132per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3,109now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤30d	1	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
≤90d	1	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%
all	1	+1.1%	-8.5%	100%	0%	-8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.5%	0%	-8.5%
10%	-17.3%	0%	-17.3%
15%	-25.3%	0%	-25.3%
20%	-32.6%	0%	-32.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$16 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$3,109

Realized+$31

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage2d

Avg bet$1,132

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	86¢	86¢	$1,164	$1,163	−$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	80¢	81¢	$993	$1,007	+$14 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	87¢	85¢	$954	$939	−$15 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$1,405	+$16	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	89¢	$1,421	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	80¢	$13	45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	80¢	$299	45h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	80¢	$687	46h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	87¢	$958	46h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	88¢	$1,405	46h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	86¢	$1,169	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,108.60 · official $3,108.60 (match) · 9 history records