Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:37:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d47…5a53 crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (197 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21,100 (-26%) realized −$21,099 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%123W / 164L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day197.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8,085
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (197 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -38.0% -43.9% 30% 29% -59.6%
≤30d 287 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 39% -43.4%
≤90d 287 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 39% -43.4%
all 287 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 39% -43.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover197.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.1% 39% -43.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.8% 36% -48.8%
15% -42.9% 32% -53.7%
20% -48.5% 26% -58.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$504) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$396 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$21,099
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses123 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 218
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$366
Trades / day197.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $677 −$677 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $3,384 −$3,384 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $182 +$206 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $415 −$415 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $175 −$60 -34%
Solana Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $219 −$219 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $139 −$139 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $667 −$667 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $453 −$453 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $275 −$275 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 21 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $249 −$248 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $1,044 −$1,044 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $558 −$558 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 21 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $572 −$572 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $671 −$671 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $515 −$515 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $1,090 −$1,090 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $965 −$965 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $1,287 −$1,287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $837 −$910 -109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $941 −$941 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $438 −$438 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 21 $1,702 −$1,702 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $1,140 −$1,103 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $694 −$694 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $419 −$475 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $270 −$270 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $1,231 −$1,231 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $1,946 −$1,946 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $414 −$414 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 21 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $514 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $20 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $1 4m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.75 · official $9.75 (match) · 3500 history records