Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d45…71a1 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,305 (-19%) realized −$1,286 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%33W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$220
7 days−$1,297
14 days−$1,441
30 days−$1,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,286
crypto 31% +$51
sports 21% −$206
world 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.3% -18.8% 62% 45% -45.4%
≤30d 48 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 48% -32.3%
≤90d 48 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 48% -32.3%
all 48 -6.0% -14.9% 69% 48% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 48% -32.3%
10% -23.1% 17% -38.8%
15% -30.5% 8% -44.7%
20% -37.3% 2% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$123 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized−$1,286
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses33 / 15
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage21d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,035 $1,052 +$17 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 69¢ 48¢ $102 $71 −$31 (-30%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 84¢ 77¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$14 +28%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $52 +$10 +20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $52 +$11 +22%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $52 +$13 +25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $108 −$30 -28%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $443 −$230 -52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $52 −$13 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$4 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $32 +$2 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $51 −$1 -3%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $51 −$22 -42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 +$46 +44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $53 +$5 +10%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $56 −$13 -23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$5 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $53 +$6 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $53 −$53 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $54 +$9 +17%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 +$8 +7%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $535 −$535 -100%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $499 −$499 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $53 +$11 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $103 +$18 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $53 −$26 -48%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $47 +$14 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $198 +$32 +16%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 +$6 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 +$12 +23%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$9 +17%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$6 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$5 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $219 +$47 +22%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$6 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 16 $490 +$12 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? Jun 16 $502 +$15 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 +$21 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $106 −$18 -18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +107%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $99 +$15 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $54 +$20 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $52 46m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $65 47m
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $8 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $6 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $6 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $6 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $52 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $52 4h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 82¢ $52 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 38¢ $10 9h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $52 28h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 69¢ $47 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $55 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 45¢ $3 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 45¢ $171 29h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL No 47¢ $39 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 49¢ $30 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 91¢ $259 30h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 91¢ $184 30h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $53 32h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 62¢ $39 45h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 84¢ $50 46h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 80¢ $52 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 92¢ $32 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.71 · official $1,174.96 (match) · 147 history records