Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d44…4cb1 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%46W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$3
crypto 15% $0
other 11% $0
politics 5% $0
tech 3% $0
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 58 -1.7% -11.0% 79% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses46 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage537d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $67 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 01 $18 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? Feb 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in December? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 02 $19 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 04 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Aug 03 $37 $0 +1%
Will US leave NATO by June 30? Jul 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jul 03 $23 $0 +0%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $3 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will any other candidate win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will Jarred McCain win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 12 $61 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $2,679 −$3 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $22 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $420 - 425b on February 28? Mar 03 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hyperliquid reach $88 in June? BUY No 100¢ $67 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $51 30d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 60d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $42 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $18 93d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 93d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $52 122d
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January? BUY No 99¢ $11 150d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $51 150d
Will Solana reach $210 in December? BUY No 100¢ $9 182d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $19 182d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $40 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $46 211d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $13 240d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $21 241d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $31 241d
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 271d
Will Solana reach $350 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 271d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $43 272d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $11 301d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $52 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $11 332d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $21 333d
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? BUY No 99¢ $37 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? BUY No 100¢ $23 362d
Will US leave NATO by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $21 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.44 · official $66.44 (match) · 121 history records