trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +2.3% | -7.4% | 33% | 0% | -8.1% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 41% | 6% | -9.2% |
| ≤90d | 17 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 41% | 6% | -9.2% |
| all | 26 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 38% | 4% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 4% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $36 | $36 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $33 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | Jun 23 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 22 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 9? | Jun 16 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 14 | $37 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by | Jun 13 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $36 | −$2 | -6% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 12 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 09 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 08 | $14 | +$2 | +14% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 08 | $36 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 07 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $81 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 04 | $3 | $0 | +3% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 04 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 03 | $38 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 03 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? | Dec 29 | $3 | $0 | -10% |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Dec 08 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 18 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 17 | $42 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 17 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | Nov 14 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Oct 23 | $4 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Oct 01 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Oct 01 | $35 | +$1 | +3% |