Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d43…d31d world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2
other 38% $0
politics 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +2.3% -7.4% 33% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 6% -9.2%
≤90d 17 +1.1% -8.5% 41% 6% -9.2%
all 26 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 4% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 4% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage300d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 +$3 +8%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $78 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $33 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $14 +$2 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $36 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $81 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3 $0 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $38 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Dec 29 $3 $0 -10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 08 $36 $0 +1%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $35 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $2 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 7h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $36 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $33 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $27 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $37 19h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $5 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $37 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $37 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $11 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $5 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $28 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 67¢ $36 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $3 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $42 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 40¢ $16 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.62 · official $35.62 (match) · 250 history records