Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:18:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d41…a3cb other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%14W / 87L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$10
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$14
politics 26% −$7
economics 4% −$1
world 3% −$1
culture 2% −$1
sports 2% +$46
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -20.1% -27.7% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 101 +3.7% -6.2% 14% 12% -9.4%
all 101 +3.7% -6.2% 14% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 12% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 12% -18.1%
15% -23.4% 10% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses14 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage86d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $665 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $106 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $300 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $249 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 16 $255 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,126 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $250 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $253 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $260 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $260 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 01 $23 $0 +2%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $452 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 27 $267 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $491 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $529 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $438 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,071 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $262 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $262 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $475 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $248 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 8h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $49 26h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $49 28h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 31h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $159 44h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $46 8d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 9d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 9d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $57 11d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $57 11d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $34 13d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $34 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 16d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 18d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.24 · official $274.24 (match) · 297 history records