Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d3e…41e3 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 584d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 69% −$14
politics 21% −$10
other 6% +$10
sports 1% +$2
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 48 +14.3% +3.4% 25% 17% -7.4%
all 61 +7.9% -2.4% 25% 13% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 13% -9.6%
10% -11.7% 13% -18.2%
15% -20.2% 13% -26.1%
20% -28.1% 13% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

584d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage584d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $15 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $17 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 27 $32 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $11 +$9 +90%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $154 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $78 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $163 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $155 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $77 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $81 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $77 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $82 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $80 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $11 +$7 +70%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 08 $6 +$6 +104%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 08 $6 +$9 +146%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $9 +$6 +59%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 06 $44 +$1 +2%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Stars Mar 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $15 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $15 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 6d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 7d
Will Lorenzo Sonego be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $17 12d
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $33 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 19d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 19d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $12 20d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 29d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 29d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 30d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $18 31d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $15 34d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $15 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.01 · official $90.01 (match) · 279 history records