Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d3d…2e83 crypto 1173 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$244 (-5%) realized −$244 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%620W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$27
14 days−$50
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$297
tech 0% −$25
other 0% −$3
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 371 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 62% -14.2%
≤30d 1040 -3.1% -12.3% 53% 49% -14.7%
≤90d 1173 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 48% -15.0%
all 1173 -3.3% -12.5% 53% 48% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.5% 48% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -23.2%
15% -28.5% 41% -30.6%
20% -35.5% 36% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$244
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses620 / 553
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1173 / 1173
History coverage82d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1173 Trades
no open positions (136 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2976 history records