Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:29:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d3a…9683 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,126 (+22%) realized +$3,129 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%18W / 18L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$135est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$755
7 days+$3,169
14 days+$3,028
30 days+$3,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,280
other 20% +$1,745
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +8.8% -1.6% 55% 48% +16.6%
≤30d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 42% +12.8%
≤90d 36 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 42% +12.8%
all 36 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 42% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 42% +12.8%
10% -19.6% 36% +2.0%
15% -27.3% 33% -7.8%
20% -34.5% 22% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$593) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$343 vs −$175 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$1,811
Realized+$3,129
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses18 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$135
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage15d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs Walczaki 57¢ 58¢ $579 $594 +$15 (+3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $450 $441 −$9 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $399 $394 −$5 (-1%)
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stage SaD Esports 44¢ 43¢ $189 $185 −$4 (-2%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 92¢ 92¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 82¢ 82¢ $60 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Under 13¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? No 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Under 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $546 −$541 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 +$166 +474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $141 +$410 +291%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $241 −$239 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $293 −$292 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $170 −$166 -98%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $224 −$221 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $688 +$504 +73%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $1,535 +$420 +27%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $940 +$457 +49%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $313 +$403 +129%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 14 $27 −$27 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $674 +$903 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$5 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $41 −$41 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $893 +$1,017 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +36%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $619 −$613 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $285 +$299 +105%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $41 +$8 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $2,227 +$1,048 +47%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 12 $603 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 11 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $593 +$527 +89%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $189 −$189 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $211 −$211 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $49 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $227 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $406 1h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $62 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $261 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $80 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $1 2h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $4 3h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $9 4h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $18 4h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $2 4h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $44 4h
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY SaD Esports 44¢ $2 5h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Under 3¢ $0 10h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $12 15h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $24 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $198 15h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $263 22h
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr BUY Dynamo Esports 67¢ $546 24h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $49 26h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY University War 89¢ $4 27h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $109 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $34 38h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $78 38h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $3 38h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 46¢ $3 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,810.99 · official $1,808.85 (match) · 133 history records