Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

5D 0x5d3a…78e7 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$70 (+24%) realized +$90 · open −$20

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate65%11W / 6L

Drawdown28%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day50.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)-10.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	-0.7%	-10.1%	65%	47%	+29.5%
≤30d	17	-0.7%	-10.1%	65%	47%	+29.5%
≤90d	17	-0.7%	-10.1%	65%	47%	+29.5%
all	17	-0.7%	-10.1%	65%	47%	+29.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover50.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.1%	47%	+29.5%
10% ← realistic here	-18.7%	29%	+17.1%
15%	-26.6%	24%	+5.8%
20%	-33.8%	18%	-4.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 79% · top 2 88% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

27% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt +43% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +35% → late -32% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.19 per $1 lost it wins $3.19

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$90

Unrealized−$20

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses11 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)17 / 19

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day50.0

Drawdown28%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 17 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Up	57¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	59¢	0¢	$10	$0	−$10 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$3	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$1	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$5	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$2	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Jun 17	$78	−$21	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 17	$52	+$104	+199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 17	$15	+$12	+78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$10	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$1	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$3	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$5	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 17	$5	$0	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$10	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	BUY Down	59¢	$10	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	SELL Down	93¢	$8	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	BUY Down	57¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Up	22¢	$3	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	SELL Down	82¢	$7	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Up	34¢	$5	43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	79¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$5	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	SELL Up	81¢	$7	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Down	60¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	SELL Down	75¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	BUY Down	68¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	78¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	SELL Up	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	SELL Up	85¢	$30	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	69¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	SELL Down	94¢	$19	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 52 history records