Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d36…8f64 sports 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 403d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,955 (-5%) realized −$3,083 · open +$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%74W / 177L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$361est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$827
7 days+$391
14 days+$2,048
30 days+$7,696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$8,125
sports 36% +$11,161
crypto 22% −$4,252
culture 1% −$837
world 1% −$583
politics 1% −$454
tech 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -21.5% -29.0% 38% 38% -1.6%
≤30d 70 -20.1% -27.7% 34% 34% +44.5%
≤90d 202 -28.9% -35.7% 29% 29% -27.6%
all 251 -26.4% -33.4% 29% 29% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 29% -14.4%
10% -39.8% 29% -22.6%
15% -45.6% 27% -30.1%
20% -50.9% 25% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$197 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

403d coverage
Net worth$1,420
Realized−$3,083
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses74 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$361
Open positions9
Markets (closed)251 / 261
History coverage403d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $525 $623 +$98 (+19%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners Over 55¢ 100¢ $265 $482 +$217 (+82%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 53¢ 93¢ $124 $217 +$93 (+75%)
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) Morocco 12¢ 28¢ $25 $58 +$33 (+132%)
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals No 100¢ 87¢ $26 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 47¢ 14¢ $45 $13 −$32 (-71%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners Over 56¢ 1¢ $259 $5 −$255 (-98%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Haiti leading at halftime? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$82 +320%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $124 +$80 +65%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $299 +$193 +64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 24 $176 +$124 +70%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $123 +$53 +43%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $23 −$22 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $127 −$125 -98%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $124 −$123 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $150 +$97 +65%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $150 −$147 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -94%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $100 +$81 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $112 +$222 +199%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $27 −$26 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $422 +$254 +60%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $327 +$94 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $386 +$41 +11%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $9 −$9 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 23 $250 +$168 +67%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists Jun 22 $264 −$258 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $97 −$95 -98%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $300 +$194 +65%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $150 −$148 -99%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $196 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$29 -94%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $75 +$275 +365%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $233 −$229 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $263 −$259 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$31 -95%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $215 +$217 +101%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 16 $150 −$149 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $148 +$379 +256%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $247 +$239 +97%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $94 +$35 +38%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $101 +$65 +64%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $46 3m
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $26 25m
Haiti leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 1h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 23¢ $26 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $204 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $123 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 53¢ $125 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $263 2h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $269 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $492 2h
Spread: Morocco (-4.5) BUY Morocco 12¢ $26 2h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $10 3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $25 3h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $299 5h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Croatia win o BUY 32¢ $140 24h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $176 25h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $176 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 26h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $127 26h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $123 28h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 65¢ $124 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $150 31h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 49¢ $150 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 42h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $181 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,419.89 · official $1,443.31 · 831 history records