Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:25:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5d31…53fe crypto 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$383 (-4%) realized −$236 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$1,583
sports 8% +$1,348
other 2% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +12.5% +1.8% 56% 52% -7.5%
≤30d 28 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 46% -12.8%
≤90d 28 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 46% -12.8%
all 28 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 46% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 46% -12.8%
10% -11.6% 43% -21.2%
15% -20.1% 43% -28.8%
20% -28.0% 43% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$243 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$953
Realized−$236
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage9d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 50¢ 56¢ $500 $564 +$64 (+13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Up 56¢ 36¢ $600 $388 −$212 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $412 +$221 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $614 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $417 −$417 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $260 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $207 +$215 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $209 −$207 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $468 +$340 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $259 +$138 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $183 +$276 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $132 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $159 −$150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $311 +$296 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $208 +$141 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $367 −$367 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $154 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $207 +$126 +61%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Algeria vs. Austr Jun 28 $200 +$197 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $116 +$10 +9%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $204 +$536 +262%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U Jun 28 $184 +$308 +167%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $200 +$308 +154%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $192 −$187 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Jun 28 $1,128 −$544 -48%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 20 $687 −$432 -63%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $1 $0 -15%
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 19 $1 $0 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $633 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $614 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $618 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $301 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $375 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $41 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $581 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 41m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $952.73 · official $930.91 · 113 history records