Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d30…363c sports 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-2%) realized −$345 · open +$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%39W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$378
14 days+$390
30 days+$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$207
other 4% −$51
crypto 1% −$17
world 0% +$20
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +16.8% +5.7% 64% 59% +17.6%
≤30d 28 +12.3% +1.6% 61% 57% +15.6%
≤90d 82 -7.2% -16.1% 45% 43% -11.3%
all 94 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 39% -11.3%
10% -19.9% 37% -19.8%
15% -27.7% 34% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 21% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$27 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$268
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses39 / 55
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage123d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Seattle Orcas 13¢ 40¢ $124 $379 +$256 (+207%)
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Texas Super Kings 39¢ 52¢ $39 $52 +$12 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$20 +200%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $135 −$135 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $327 +$118 +36%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $102 +$228 +224%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 19 $52 +$60 +115%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $94 +$46 +49%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $7 +$3 +43%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $98 +$47 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $98 +$42 +42%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +156%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $45 +$55 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $44 −$28 -65%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $6 +$2 +34%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $28 −$20 -71%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $24 +$6 +25%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +6%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $115 +$21 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $30 +$37 +123%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $50 −$1 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands - Who wins the tos Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia - Who wins Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $50 +$25 +50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 31 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants - Who May 19 $4 +$4 +100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $8 −$1 -18%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $75 −$45 -60%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals - Who wins t May 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - W May 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $51 +$25 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $16 −$6 -39%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? May 15 $28 +$2 +7%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $35 −$26 -73%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad - Who win May 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? May 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals May 01 $39 −$25 -64%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru - Apr 30 $5 +$5 +108%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Apr 30 $95 −$94 -99%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $24 +$76 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Texas Super Kings 39¢ $40 31m
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 6¢ $31 1h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 10¢ $0 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 10¢ $0 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 10¢ $3 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $0 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $1 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $24 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $4 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $3 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $4 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 20¢ $4 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 25¢ $44 2h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders BUY Seattle Orcas 25¢ $6 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 4h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 19¢ $16 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 12¢ $36 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 15¢ $43 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 15¢ $0 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 15¢ $0 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 15¢ $1 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 15¢ $1 23h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 18¢ $36 24h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 18¢ $18 24h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 4¢ $20 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 4¢ $0 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY Scotland 5¢ $15 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 20¢ $120 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.91 · official $430.91 (match) · 494 history records