Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:31:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d2e…34d0 crypto 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$126 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$356now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$8
14 days+$22
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$164
tech 30% +$30
other 4% +$103
sports 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -54.7% -59.0% 33% 22% -6.0%
≤30d 70 -23.3% -30.6% 23% 21% -12.4%
≤90d 79 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 20% -21.9%
all 79 -22.2% -29.6% 28% 20% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 20% -21.9%
10% -36.4% 19% -29.4%
15% -42.5% 18% -36.2%
20% -48.1% 14% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$356
Realized−$126
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
History coverage37d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+7%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 15¢ $10 $104 +$93 (+887%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 12¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+182%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $201 +$16 +8%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +46%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$4 +250%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1261%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 16 $1 $0 +43%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -43%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$6 +116%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +140%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $216 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 5h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $4 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 7d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $1 8d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 8d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 8d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 8d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 8d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 8d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $356.23 · official $356.20 (match) · 144 history records