Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d2e…ee7b crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$155 (+9%) realized +$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$19
sports 37% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% -3.1%
≤30d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% -3.1%
≤90d 31 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% -3.1%
all 31 +8.1% -2.2% 55% 55% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 55% -3.1%
10% -11.5% 55% -12.3%
15% -20.1% 55% -20.8%
20% -27.9% 55% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$52 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $189 −$189 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $77 +$45 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$178 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$55 -96%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $117 +$97 +84%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $32 −$15 -46%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$22 +74%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $44 +$58 +132%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $26 +$24 +91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $157 −$153 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $69 +$72 +103%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $19 +$12 +64%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$49 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $77 +$64 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$26 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $129 +$95 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$13 +50%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $40 −$35 -88%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$24 +89%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $23 +$40 +172%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $22 −$21 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 8h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Galions 99¢ $214 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records