Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d2d…5bb4 crypto 54 markets active 4d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$452 (-53%) realized −$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate20%11W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$368
14 days−$470
30 days−$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$325
finance 19% −$96
other 6% −$46
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-67.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -40.4% -46.1% 33% 27% -56.9%
≤30d 54 -64.0% -67.4% 20% 17% -61.6%
≤90d 54 -64.0% -67.4% 20% 17% -61.6%
all 54 -64.0% -67.4% 20% 17% -61.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -67.4% 17% -61.6%
10% -70.6% 17% -65.3%
15% -73.4% 11% -68.7%
20% -76.0% 9% -71.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -89% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses11 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage9d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$15 +146%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $103 −$53 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $70 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$21 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$7 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 10 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +34%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Pierre Gasly win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Alexander Albon win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Franco Colapinto win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Oliver Bearman win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Liam Lawson win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Fernando Alonso win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Nico Hulkenberg win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Esteban Ocon win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Valtteri Bottas win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Lance Stroll win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $21 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records