Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d2c…cd4e sports 263 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$223 (-2%) realized −$218 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%126W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$209est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$200
30 days+$440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$356
other 2% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +21.5% +10.0% 59% 59% -5.3%
≤30d 175 +2.7% -7.1% 49% 48% -4.9%
≤90d 238 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 47% -9.9%
all 261 -4.2% -13.3% 48% 47% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% -11.9%
10% -21.6% 46% -20.4%
15% -29.2% 43% -28.1%
20% -36.1% 37% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$44 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$218
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses126 / 135
Est. fees paid−$209
Open positions2
Markets (closed)261 / 263
History coverage104d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 261 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Maria 65¢ 62¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Tatjana Maria 42¢ 40¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 122 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 19 $36 +$40 +111%
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Promise David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $22 −$22 -98%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 18 $29 +$34 +114%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 18 $45 +$25 +57%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $45 −$44 -99%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $34 +$45 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$41 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $126 −$124 -99%
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals Jun 13 $29 +$27 +93%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $74 −$73 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $22 −$22 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $50 +$36 +73%
Set Handicap: Putintseva (-1.5) vs Dudeney (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 +$41 +86%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) Jun 13 $49 +$25 +50%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $39 +$23 +58%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $29 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $88 −$87 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$34 +114%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $22 +$25 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$77 +344%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $70 +$51 +73%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $49 +$17 +35%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $47 +$36 +77%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $68 −$67 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Sachko vs Kokkinakis Jun 10 $18 $0 -2%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $18 +$31 +170%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $256 −$38 -15%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $38 +$26 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $56 −$3 -5%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 10 $25 +$14 +54%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $22 −$22 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Kolar vs Pokorny Jun 10 $14 −$14 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Lukas Pokorny Jun 10 $18 −$18 -98%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $37 −$36 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mboko/Williams vs Melichar/Routliffe Jun 09 $22 +$39 +172%
Set 1 Winner: Rocha vs Broom Jun 09 $45 $0 -1%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 09 $33 +$3 +10%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $71 +$57 +80%
Stuttgart Open: Tom Gentzsch vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 09 $55 −$54 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Jenson Brooksby Jun 09 $29 +$32 +109%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $31 +$33 +108%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Antonia Ruzic Jun 09 $39 −$38 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 09 $17 +$4 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 42¢ $45 1h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Maria 65¢ $85 1h
Ali Ahmed: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $21 8h
Promise David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $22 8h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $63 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 92¢ $70 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $36 10h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $45 10h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $29 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 58¢ $45 11h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin SELL Zhizhen Zhang 100¢ $78 12h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin BUY Zhizhen Zhang 42¢ $34 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 16h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $25 34h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $30 34h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $30 34h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 31¢ $24 5d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 58¢ $101 5d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $57 5d
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 46¢ $74 5d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $22 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw SELL Felix Balshaw 100¢ $86 5d
Breel Embolo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $29 5d
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $30 5d
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 57¢ $50 5d
Set Handicap: Putintseva (-1.5) vs Dudeney (+1.5) BUY Dudeney 53¢ $48 5d
Set Handicap: Cina (-1.5) vs Daniel (+1.5) SELL Daniel 100¢ $74 5d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley SELL Jacob Fearnley 96¢ $62 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $29 5d
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 60¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.29 · official $123.29 (match) · 432 history records