Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d2c…baf2 crypto 1071 markets active 0h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$57 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%509W / 502L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$31
14 days−$19
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 24% −$3
other 23% −$30
sports 17% +$120
weather 14% −$22
world 10% −$29
politics 6% −$3
tech 3% −$15
finance 2% −$1
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -6.9% -15.8% 50% 48% -15.1%
≤30d 643 -8.3% -17.0% 51% 47% -10.9%
≤90d 951 -8.8% -17.5% 49% 43% -10.2%
all 1011 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 44% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -9.2%
10% -24.4% 40% -17.9%
15% -31.7% 32% -25.8%
20% -38.4% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses509 / 502
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions60
Markets (closed)1011 / 1071
History coverage227d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 1011 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 68¢ 88¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? No 42¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+138%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+33%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Up 55¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+82%)
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Up 64¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+56%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? No 74¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+35%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 76¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+32%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 79¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 72¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+39%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 78¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+27%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 79¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 76¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+26%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 56¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+71%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 83¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Down 63¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? No 75¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+19%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 65¢ 90¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 62¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 43¢ 76¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+74%)
Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026? No 43¢ 59¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+37%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 79¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +80%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin above 66,800 on June 15, 2PM ET? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $2 +$3 +124%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +105%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin above 67,200 on June 15, 1PM ET? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +43%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $6 −$3 -45%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +46%
Solana Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 −$3 -90%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +65%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 13 $7 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 41¢ $2 26m
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 71¢ $4 40m
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 49m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 49m
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $4 59m
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 60¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi BUY No 57¢ $3 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 1h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 63¢ $3 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? BUY No 59¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 9h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $3 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? SELL No 35¢ $2 24h
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 on June 15? BUY No 43¢ $2 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 24h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 39¢ $2 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.99 · official $196.11 (match) · 2392 history records