Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d2c…3ec7 sports 1242 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$782 (+0%) realized +$793 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%676W / 556L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$242per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$1,086est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$2,098
14 days−$1,147
30 days−$11,933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$3,151
other 14% +$5,164
world 1% −$1,013
politics 0% +$123
crypto 0% −$106
economics 0% −$16
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -16.9% -24.8% 38% 36% -40.2%
≤30d 227 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 46% -27.5%
≤90d 1124 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 44% -9.6%
all 1232 -3.1% -12.4% 55% 46% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 46% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 39% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 30% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 22% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$64 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$793
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses676 / 556
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$1,086
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1232 / 1242
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$242
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Over 66¢ 30¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 36¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert Jun 20 $121 +$43 +35%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$32 +32%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Panama to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +114%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +41%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$17 +325%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $446 +$108 +24%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$6 -55%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $468 +$5 +1%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $282 +$186 +66%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 17 $5 +$9 +181%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $111 +$30 +27%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $274 −$274 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $32 −$4 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $442 −$358 -81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$23 +445%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $420 −$412 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $318 +$374 +118%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14 Jun 15 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 20¢ $10 10m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 18m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 18m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 18m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert SELL Petra Marcinko 99¢ $164 24m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $133 34m
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 48¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Simona Waltert BUY Petra Marcinko 81¢ $101 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Aryna Sabalenka 64¢ $20 4h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 13h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $10 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 23¢ $5 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 15h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $446 18h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 38¢ $5 33h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $5 33h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 49¢ $10 33h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 65¢ $13 33h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 96¢ $23 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 40h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 40h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 83¢ $20 41h
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 64¢ $20 43h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over $1 43h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 76¢ $474 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $468 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.99 · official $66.07 · 3500 history records