Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d2c…2fcc crypto 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$373 (-43%) realized −$373 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$377
other 29% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-29.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 0% -0.7%
≤30d 1 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 0% -0.7%
≤90d 4 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 0% -50.6%
all 4 -22.5% -29.9% 50% 0% -50.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.9% 0% -50.6%
10% -36.6% 0% -55.3%
15% -42.7% 0% -59.7%
20% -48.4% 0% -63.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$188 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$373
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage82d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? No 100¢ 99¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 17 $34 +$3 +10%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 28? Mar 28 $377 −$377 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 27? Mar 28 $164 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 28 $247 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Harris Dickinson announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 91¢ $34 37d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 28? BUY Yes 2¢ $377 80d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $247 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $164 81d
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $247 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.35 · official $37.35 (match) · 8 history records