Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d29…e62d crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$34 (+7%) realized +$30 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate70%21W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day82.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +8.7% -1.7% 70% 43% -15.7%
≤30d 30 +8.7% -1.7% 70% 43% -15.7%
≤90d 30 +8.7% -1.7% 70% 43% -15.7%
all 30 +8.7% -1.7% 70% 43% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 43% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 37% -23.8%
15% -19.7% 27% -31.1%
20% -27.5% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses21 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day82.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 9¢ 50¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+442%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $157 −$74 -47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$1 -4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $21 +$3 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$1 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +29%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$13 +120%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $7 +$8 +106%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $11 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $51 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $0 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 40m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 44m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 48m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 49m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.42 · official $5.42 (match) · 130 history records