Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:35:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5D 0x5d26…7bba world 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 297d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,457 (-32%) realized −$1,380 · open −$77

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip

Net edge-40%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate42%5W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$283per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit69%portable

Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days$0

14 days$0

30 days$0

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-40.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	2	+13.4%	+2.6%	100%	50%	+2.7%
all	12	-33.9%	-40.2%	42%	33%	-39.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-40.2%	33%	-39.8%
10%	-45.9%	25%	-45.5%
15%	-51.1%	17%	-50.8%
20%	-55.9%	17%	-55.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -34% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -54% → late -13% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$106 vs −$273 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.28 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

297d coverage

Net worth$323

Realized−$1,380

Unrealized−$77

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses5 / 7

Open positions4

Markets (closed)12 / 16

History coverage297d

Avg bet$283

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$100	$100	+$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	13¢	$100	$100	−$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	40¢	10¢	$100	$24	−$76 (-76%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Apr 05	$710	+$141	+20%
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Apr 01	$670	+$46	+7%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	Mar 07	$10	−$10	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Feb 28	$200	+$116	+58%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	Feb 28	$100	−$100	-100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Feb 28	$493	+$173	+35%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 24	$123	−$123	-100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	Jan 24	$300	−$300	-100%
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?	Dec 19	$39	+$51	+131%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Nov 19	$250	−$143	-57%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17?	Nov 17	$100	−$100	-100%
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	Aug 27	$1,133	−$1,132	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$103	1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$103	1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$102	1h
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	SELL Yes	100¢	$851	73d
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	BUY Yes	83¢	$710	74d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	SELL No	100¢	$716	77d
Netanyahu out by March 31?	BUY No	93¢	$670	95d
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)	BUY Max Holloway	65¢	$10	102d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	SELL Yes	41¢	$316	109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY Yes	26¢	$200	109d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?	BUY Yes	6¢	$100	109d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	BUY Yes	74¢	$493	109d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	25¢	$123	144d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	6¢	$200	144d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?	BUY Yes	19¢	$100	159d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	BUY Yes	40¢	$100	159d
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?	SELL Yes	90¢	$90	180d
Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?	BUY Yes	39¢	$39	209d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	SELL No	8¢	$106	210d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	SELL No	8¢	$1	210d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	BUY No	17¢	$250	210d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17?	BUY No	8¢	$100	212d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$300	294d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$233	294d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$100	294d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$150	295d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$100	296d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$50	296d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	0¢	$100	296d
Houthi strike on Israel by August 31?	BUY No	56¢	$100	297d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.46 · official $323.46 (match) · 31 history records