Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:47:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d21…3f21 other 84 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$148 (+1%) realized +$148 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate19%16W / 67L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 53% −$14
politics 23% −$12
other 18% +$34
sports 3% +$129
tech 2% +$7
crypto 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -5.7% -14.7% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 59 -1.1% -10.5% 15% 14% -9.3%
all 83 +4.7% -5.2% 19% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 14% -9.0%
10% -14.3% 14% -17.7%
15% -22.6% 14% -25.7%
20% -30.2% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$3 · ×7.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses16 / 67
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage620d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $142 $142 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $75 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $30 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $40 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $44 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $31 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $86 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $137 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $45 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $267 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $227 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $10 +$5 +57%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $239 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $221 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $230 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $244 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $471 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $224 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $242 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $245 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $245 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $223 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $224 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $413 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 13 $242 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $6 +$9 +165%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$7 +62%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $9 +$10 +104%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $53 20m
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 27h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 27h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 42h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 44h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $142 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 7d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 7d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 7d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 7d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $75 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 8d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 8d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 10d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 38¢ $4 10d
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $53 10d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $30 13d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $40 14d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 15d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $53 16d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 16d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $38 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.29 · official $142.29 (match) · 369 history records