Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:03:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d1c…1767 world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate46%18W / 21L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$1
sports 21% +$14
other 7% −$5
politics 7% +$2
crypto 3% −$3
economics 2% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -6.4% -15.3% 35% 0% -9.8%
all 39 -5.8% -14.8% 46% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 3% -8.8%
10% -22.9% 3% -17.6%
15% -30.4% 3% -25.5%
20% -37.2% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses18 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage491d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $63 $0 +1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $32 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $66 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $34 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $20 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -25%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $13 $0 +0%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 14 $156 +$4 +2%
GG Jackson II: Points O/U 10.5 Mar 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $13 $0 +3%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $6 $0 +1%
Will Lee Zeldin be out as Administrator of the Environmental Protectio Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $5 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $19 $0 -0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $19 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $17 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $5 −$4 -77%
Canada election called by Sunday? Mar 24 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $19 +$1 +3%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 20 $19 $0 +2%
Monmouth vs. Hofstra Mar 04 $10 +$10 +104%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $33 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $32 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $32 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $30 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 36h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 38h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $32 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 65¢ $34 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $23 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $11 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 88¢ $38 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $38 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $6 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $1 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $29 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records