Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d1a…c720 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$156 (+14%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$55
14 days+$55
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$6
tech 17% +$133
finance 17% +$55
world 8% −$38
politics 7% +$7
economics 6% $0
culture 4% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 100% +16.5%
≤30d 1 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 100% +16.5%
≤90d 3 +11.1% +0.5% 100% 33% +0.8%
all 9 +23.9% +12.1% 56% 22% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 22% +4.8%
10% +1.4% 22% -5.2%
15% -8.4% 11% -14.3%
20% -17.4% 11% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$12 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage141d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $133 $133 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? Jun 21 $190 +$55 +29%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 02 $190 +$3 +2%
Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy Apr 03 $165 +$5 +3%
Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4? Mar 13 $57 +$133 +233%
Will Trump talk to Kevin Warsh in February? Feb 24 $93 −$38 -41%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Feb 18 $76 +$7 +10%
Databricks IPO before 2027? Feb 14 $91 −$2 -2%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Feb 09 $46 −$8 -18%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Feb 02 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.60 · official $132.60 (match) · 22 history records