trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +28.8% | +16.5% | 100% | 100% | +16.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +28.8% | +16.5% | 100% | 100% | +16.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +11.1% | +0.5% | 100% | 33% | +0.8% |
| all | 9 | +23.9% | +12.1% | 56% | 22% | +4.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +12.1% | 22% | +4.8% |
| 10% | +1.4% | 22% | -5.2% |
| 15% | -8.4% | 11% | -14.3% |
| 20% | -17.4% | 11% | -22.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | Yes | 51¢ | 51¢ | $133 | $133 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will S&P 500 (SPX) close at <$6,000 in December? | Jun 21 | $190 | +$55 | +29% |
| Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? | May 02 | $190 | +$3 | +2% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy | Apr 03 | $165 | +$5 | +3% |
| Will "Siri" be said 5+ times during the NYC Apple event on March 4? | Mar 13 | $57 | +$133 | +233% |
| Will Trump talk to Kevin Warsh in February? | Feb 24 | $93 | −$38 | -41% |
| Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Feb 18 | $76 | +$7 | +10% |
| Databricks IPO before 2027? | Feb 14 | $91 | −$2 | -2% |
| Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa | Feb 09 | $46 | −$8 | -18% |
| Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? | Feb 02 | $63 | $0 | -0% |