Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d17…9fc4 politics 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 139L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$25
other 26% −$29
sports 14% −$9
finance 6% −$8
economics 6% −$4
crypto 4% −$5
culture 4% −$8
world 4% −$6
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 50 -0.7% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 140 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
all 159 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage109d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $56 $0 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $150 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $91 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $378 −$1 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $66 −$2 -4%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $682 −$3 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $110 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $190 −$2 -1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $236 −$2 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $295 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -3%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 10 $231 −$1 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 09 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $61 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 06 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $203 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $274 −$4 -2%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $17 $0 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 03 $45 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $142 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $351 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $508 −$2 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $209 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $231 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $221 −$2 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $44 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $314 +$4 +1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $200 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $68 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $55 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 8d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 8d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $61 8d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $61 8d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 8d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 8d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $58 8d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $58 9d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 9d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 9d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 9d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $54 9d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 9d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 10d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 10d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $42 10d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 92¢ $64 10d
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $66 10d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $58 10d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $58 11d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $58 11d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $58 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 11d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $44 11d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $44 11d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $50 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.28 · official $68.28 (match) · 701 history records