Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:57:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d14…f8bd world 200 markets active 4d ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,772 (+2%) realized +$1,641 · open +$131
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate83%154W / 31L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$3,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$22
14 days+$23
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$1,065
world 34% +$548
other 20% +$102
politics 3% +$26
economics 1% +$15
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.6% -5.4% 90% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 31 -2.7% -12.0% 87% 19% -11.2%
≤90d 69 +1.1% -8.5% 93% 12% -5.5%
all 185 -0.5% -9.9% 83% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 7% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 2% -16.8%
15% -26.4% 1% -24.8%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$43 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$3,328
Realized+$1,641
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses154 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)185 / 200
History coverage211d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 185 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $1,787 $1,879 +$92 (+5%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $452 $463 +$11 (+2%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 98¢ $205 $224 +$19 (+9%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $197 $198 +$1 (+1%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $161 $167 +$6 (+4%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $106 $107 +$1 (+1%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $96 $103 +$7 (+7%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 73¢ 72¢ $39 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 21¢ $14 $4 −$10 (-71%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 47¢ 99¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+111%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 16 $44 +$2 +4%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $32 +$4 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 13 $205 +$8 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $21 +$3 +12%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $56 +$1 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $59 +$2 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $492 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $59 +$3 +6%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 04 $22 $0 +2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $35 +$1 +2%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $35 +$1 +3%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $28 $0 +2%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $16 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $436 +$57 +13%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $64 +$5 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $198 +$45 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $592 +$15 +3%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $165 −$165 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $21 +$3 +14%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 24 $38 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $71 −$22 -32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $79 +$13 +16%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? May 21 $7 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 21 $221 +$17 +8%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 21 $18 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 16 $104 +$3 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? May 14 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 14 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $288 +$8 +3%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $96 +$9 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 10 $115 +$3 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 10 $129 +$8 +6%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $444 +$7 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $1,398 +$198 +14%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 01 $19 +$1 +7%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $44 +$2 +4%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? May 01 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30? May 01 $138 +$2 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $491 +$69 +14%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $1,400 +$91 +6%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $8 $0 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 03 $350 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 4d
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $97 4d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 99¢ $56 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $46 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $38 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $185 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $7 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $246 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $175 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $246 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $253 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $5 5d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $5 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $6 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $19 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY No 92¢ $21 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $492 6d
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 98¢ $33 6d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 96¢ $10 6d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $14 6d
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, BUY No 97¢ $7 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? BUY No 97¢ $11 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $83 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,328.43 · official $3,332.59 (match) · 2881 history records