Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5D 0x5d10…7fa9 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+16%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$47
sports 42% +$148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+32.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +46.6% +32.6% 75% 75% +14.6%
≤30d 4 +46.6% +32.6% 75% 75% +14.6%
≤90d 4 +46.6% +32.6% 75% 75% +14.6%
all 4 +46.6% +32.6% 75% 75% +14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.6% 75% +14.6%
10% +19.9% 75% +3.6%
15% +8.3% 75% -6.4%
20% -2.3% 50% -15.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$80 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $99 +$120 +121%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $170 −$80 -47%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $51 +$33 +64%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $59 +$28 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 87¢ $10 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 80¢ $9 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 76¢ $60 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 64¢ $51 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 43¢ $98 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $90 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $90 2h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $170 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $83 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 5h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $59 6h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $51 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records