Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d0f…085c weather 481 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,803 (+21%) realized +$1,638 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate70%335W / 145L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$230
14 days−$95
30 days+$1,003
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$1,596
world 3% +$49
sports 1% −$10
politics 0% −$4
other 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +5.8% -4.3% 51% 33% -27.8%
≤30d 276 +26.2% +14.1% 69% 46% +7.9%
≤90d 472 +27.0% +14.9% 71% 46% +7.5%
all 480 +26.8% +14.7% 70% 46% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 46% +7.5%
10% +3.7% 33% -2.8%
15% -6.3% 23% -12.2%
20% -15.5% 15% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.44 per $1 lost it wins $3.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,638
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses335 / 145
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage158d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 8? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Vitality 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Vitality 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $13 −$7 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 +$7 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 12 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 12 $8 +$7 +95%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +41%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $7 −$2 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$44 +4204%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$4 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $17 −$17 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $22 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 8? Jun 08 $0 $0 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 59m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 85¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL Yes 97¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 12h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 88¢ $11 26h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 83¢ $10 26h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 27h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 16¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 30h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $14 40h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 40h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 46h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 79¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 1864 history records