Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d0f…7d7d crypto 862 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$103 (-2%) realized −$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%433W / 428L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$205
7 days−$14
14 days−$197
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$105
other 10% −$107
sports 7% −$35
politics 3% −$18
tech 1% −$22
world 0% +$4
finance 0% +$16
culture 0% −$9
weather 0% −$1
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +37.1% +24.1% 40% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 71 -10.6% -19.1% 27% 21% -25.4%
≤90d 861 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 47% -14.4%
all 861 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 47% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 47% -14.4%
10% -22.9% 39% -22.6%
15% -30.3% 34% -30.1%
20% -37.1% 27% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses433 / 428
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)861 / 862
History coverage71d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 861 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $197 −$195 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$33 +325%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $61 +$82 +134%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? Jun 20 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +5%
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? Jun 18 $2 $0 -24%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -60%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 18 $22 −$22 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto Jun 18 $18 −$12 -64%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +122%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 14 $2 −$1 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -24%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -54%
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the #1 song on US Spoti Jun 12 $1 +$3 +239%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $13 +$2 +12%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Apple announce a HomePod mini successor during the WWDC 2026 keyn Jun 06 $53 −$18 -33%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 05 $33 +$4 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $16 +$9 +58%
Will Trump meet with Ahmed al-Sharaa in 2026? Jun 02 $48 −$9 -19%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Madison Keys May 30 $85 +$50 +59%
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026? May 30 $3 $0 -6%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? May 30 $1 −$1 -44%
Epic Games IPO before 2027? May 30 $3 $0 -9%
Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution? May 30 $2 −$2 -70%
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? May 30 $2 −$1 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 41m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 58¢ $157 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 27h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 45h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 45h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 5d
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? SELL No 18¢ $1 5d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? SELL No 22¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 74¢ $3 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 67¢ $3 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $3 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? SELL No 24¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY No 71¢ $2 6d
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.0B? BUY No 43¢ $1 6d
Will Micron Q3 DRAM revenue be above $29B? BUY No 44¢ $2 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $3 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 95¢ $3 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 88¢ $3 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 84¢ $3 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $3 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $3 7d
Will Spencer Pratt concede by June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 1770 history records