trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | No | 94¢ | 87¢ | $1,579,196 | $1,464,830 | −$114,366 (-7%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 72¢ | 64¢ | $28,353 | $25,006 | −$3,347 (-12%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | No | 40¢ | 43¢ | $13,133 | $14,138 | +$1,005 (+8%) |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 31¢ | 34¢ | $12,537 | $14,002 | +$1,465 (+12%) |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? | Yes | 6¢ | 3¢ | $3,216 | $1,606 | −$1,610 (-50%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 20¢ | $78 | $68 | −$10 (-13%) |
| Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 10,000 in 2026? | Yes | 38¢ | 66¢ | $7 | $12 | +$5 (+74%) |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 96¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+8%) |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | No | 42¢ | 0¢ | $1,868 | $0 | −$1,868 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 08 | $506,367 | +$113,110 | +22% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $258,028 | +$949,870 | +368% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 01 | $4,400 | −$1,178 | -27% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 29 | $3,600 | −$2,940 | -82% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 29 | $6,603 | +$1,209 | +18% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $109,545 | +$14,870 | +14% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 23 | $11,280 | +$672 | +6% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $2,080 | +$7,746 | +372% |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 18 | $1,911 | −$1,868 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +22.3% | +10.7% | 100% | 100% | +10.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +65.8% | +50.0% | 67% | 56% | +98.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +65.8% | +50.0% | 67% | 56% | +98.7% |
| all | 9 | +65.8% | +50.0% | 67% | 56% | +98.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +50.0% | 56% | +98.7% |
| 10% | +35.7% | 33% | +79.7% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +22.6% | 22% | +62.4% |
| 20% | +10.5% | 22% | +46.4% |