Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d0f…b52a
weather · 44 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$62 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$34 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day100.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 43 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? No 24¢ 100¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+314%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 −$3 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$12 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $66 +$31 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $16 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$16 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $65 +$18 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$7 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$8 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$11 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $13 +$14 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 −$65 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$9 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 +$13 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$5 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $39 +$12 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 25m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 27m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $25 28m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 22¢ $0 34m
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 26¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $97 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 4¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $78 41m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 11¢ $2 43m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $65 45m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $66 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 73¢ $31 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 56m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 24¢ $13 59m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 17¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 18¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 71¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 40¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL No 91¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 35% -6.2%
≤30d 43 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 35% -6.2%
≤90d 43 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 35% -6.2%
all 43 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 35% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover100.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 35% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 28% -15.2%
15% -36.7% 16% -23.4%
20% -42.9% 12% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.50 · official $9.50 (match) · 141 history records