Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:05:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5d0b…0874 sports 400 markets active 2h ago coverage 327d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$320 (+2%) realized +$319 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%239W / 150L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$65
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$673
world 11% −$57
other 10% −$262
crypto 7% −$74
economics 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -10.4% -18.9% 50% 50% -13.8%
≤30d 37 -14.9% -23.0% 51% 46% -11.4%
≤90d 94 -5.8% -14.8% 59% 53% -6.0%
all 389 -5.2% -14.2% 61% 54% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 54% -8.0%
10% -22.4% 39% -16.8%
15% -29.9% 24% -24.9%
20% -36.8% 16% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

327d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$319
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses239 / 150
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions10
Markets (closed)389 / 400
History coverage327d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 389 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+82%)
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $208 −$3 -1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$6 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $81 +$22 +27%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $89 +$23 +25%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $40 +$14 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $38 +$8 +20%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $25 +$22 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 −$6 -32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$6 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 09 $16 −$16 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 07 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $20 +$21 +105%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $37 +$43 +115%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $141 +$58 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $12 −$12 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 07 $30 +$10 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $30 +$8 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $40 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Justin Thomas win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $10 −$3 -26%
Will Cameron Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $77 −$73 -95%
Will Kurt Kitayama win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 06 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 03 $61 +$15 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $70 +$11 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$9 +12%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $134 +$95 +71%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $135 −$67 -50%
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $66 −$26 -40%
Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $88 −$26 -30%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $62 +$9 +14%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $62 +$2 +2%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $8 −$7 -90%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $13 −$6 -48%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $13 −$10 -75%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 62¢ $51 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 78¢ $30 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 60¢ $101 4d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $26 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 79¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $40 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $10 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $20 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 80¢ $49 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 40¢ $14 5d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 74¢ $40 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $8 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $20 5d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 53¢ $25 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.35 · official $246.36 (match) · 1167 history records