Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5d09…72eb crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate64%25W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% −$9
other 26% −$5
crypto 0% +$1
sports 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 +10.1% -0.4% 81% 5% -9.6%
all 39 -10.7% -19.2% 64% 15% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 15% -9.7%
10% -27.0% 13% -18.3%
15% -34.0% 10% -26.2%
20% -40.5% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses25 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage458d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $3,036 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 27 $3,039 −$3 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 27 $3,043 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 $0 +8%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? May 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $3 $0 +1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 25 $4 $0 +9%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $1 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? May 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? Apr 24 $4 $0 +8%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in t Apr 14 $3 +$5 +163%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $4 +$2 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 12? Feb 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Predators vs. Blues Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-12-10? Dec 15 $3 +$2 +79%
Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? Nov 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MH Maccabi Tel Aviv win on 2025-10-23? Nov 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will any candidate win outright in 1st round of Poland Election? Nov 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 4? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AS Roma vs. FC Viktoria Plzeň end in a draw? Nov 21 $2 $0 +20%
Will the People's Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500.00 by March 31? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Luigi Mangione motivated by denied claims? Apr 12 $1 $0 +0%
March Madness: Team from the ACC to win? Apr 12 $2 +$2 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3,033 14m
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3,036 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $3,036 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $3,039 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,039 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,043 3h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 96¢ $3 10d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 10d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL No 100¢ $1 10d
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen SELL No 93¢ $2 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $4 17d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 98¢ $1 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 24d
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamen BUY No 98¢ $2 29d
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 29d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $4 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 18-24? BUY No 99¢ $2 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 37d
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En BUY No 92¢ $4 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 44d
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY No 96¢ $1 44d
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? SELL No 90¢ $5 63d
Will Fidesz-KDNP win <70 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in t BUY Yes 38¢ $3 78d
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? BUY No 83¢ $4 78d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 105d
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 70¢ $4 105d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 BUY No 70¢ $1 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.40 · official $3.40 (match) · 78 history records