Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d08…a62a other 11 markets active 13h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+4%) realized +$84 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$165per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$196
14 days−$179
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$39
sports 27% +$17
world 17% +$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -28.2% -35.0% 50% 50% -93.8%
≤30d 3 -17.6% -25.5% 67% 33% -32.8%
≤90d 5 +2.1% -7.7% 80% 60% -4.7%
all 5 +2.1% -7.7% 80% 60% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 60% -4.7%
10% -16.5% 60% -13.8%
15% -24.6% 20% -22.1%
20% -32.0% 0% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$200 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage77d
Avg bet$165
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 97¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 81¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $483 +$17 +4%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $539 +$161 +30%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $300 +$100 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 33h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $110 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 5d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 5d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $8 11d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $475 11d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $259 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 62d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY Yes 77¢ $67 62d
US forces enter Iran by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $300 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $226.07 · official $226.07 (match) · 23 history records